CSGO Trade Up Contracts Explained (CS2 Guide)

What is a trade up contract?

The trade up contract is a crafting feature built into Counter-Strike 2 (and CS:GO before it). You put in ten weapon skins of the same rarity, the game destroys them, and you receive one skin of the next rarity up. The result is picked at random from the collections your inputs came from.

The ladder looks like this:

The last row is new. The October 2025 CS2 update added Covert trade ups, where five Covert skins become a knife or pair of gloves from the matching cases. It changed the whole skin market overnight (see the CS2 skins market crash) and has its own guide: CS2 knife trade ups.

The rules

• Same rarity: all inputs must be the same tier.
• StatTrak must match: all StatTrak or none. StatTrak in gives StatTrak out.
• The next tier must exist: a collection with no skin one tier higher can't give you a result, so its skins can't be used for that step.
• Souvenirs: souvenir skins used to be blocked from contracts. The October 2025 update opened souvenir trade ups too, with results drawn from the matching souvenir collection.
• It can't be undone: once you sign, the inputs are gone.

How the odds are calculated

Each input acts as a "ticket" for its own collection. The chance of getting a particular skin is:

Example: you use 7 Restricted skins from Collection A and 3 from Collection B. Collection A has 2 Classified skins and Collection B has 1.

• Each Classified skin from A: 7/10 × 1/2 = 35%
• The Classified skin from B: 3/10 × 1/1 = 30%

Filling most of a contract with "filler" skins from a collection that has only one possible outcome is the classic trick. It pushes the odds toward the skin you actually want.

What decides the wear (float) of the result?

The result's float comes from the average float of your inputs, adjusted to the output skin's own float range. Low-float inputs give a low-float result. The CS2 formula now normalizes each input against its own range first. We break it down with worked examples in the trade up float guide.

This matters a lot for money. The same skin in Factory New can be worth several times its Field-Tested price, so a contract that lands just above a wear boundary can lose most of its value.

How to tell if a trade up is profitable

1. Add up the input cost: what you pay for all ten skins.
2. List every possible outcome with its probability and its likely wear.
3. Price each outcome at the wear it will actually come out at. Use the price you can realistically sell for, after fees.
4. Expected value (EV) = Σ (probability × sale price). If EV beats the input cost, the contract has positive expected value.
5. Check the downside: positive EV can still mean you lose money on most individual attempts, if one lucky outcome carries the average.

Doing this by hand for every contract is slow and prices move every hour, which is what a calculator is for.

Common mistakes

• Using Steam Market prices for outcomes you'll sell elsewhere, or the reverse. Stick to one price source.
• Forgetting fees: selling on the Steam Community Market costs about 15% in combined fees.
• Ignoring wear boundaries: a result at 0.0701 is Minimal Wear, not Factory New.
• Chasing EV on thin markets: a skin with few listings may not sell at the price your spreadsheet assumed.
• Trade protection: recently traded items can carry a temporary restriction on Steam. Check that your inputs are usable before you buy them for a contract.

Frequently asked questions